Prediction markets and options both turn uncertainty into a tradable object. Castle Labs tracks Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro, onchain options protocols, binary markets, volatility venues, and the products forming around probabilistic pricing. This topic is deliberately narrower than Markets or Trading: it is for readers who care about how crypto markets price information, risk, and future events.
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This article is an excerpt from our research on The Renaissance of Onchain Options, mapping the expansion of options (and prediction markets) as a trading instrument and the volatility that prices them, published in collaboration with BlockScholes.
PLUS: Lighter's horizontal bet, Prediction Market regulation, and SECZ’s tokenised stock
This article is an excerpt from our research on The Renaissance of Onchain Options, mapping the expansion of options (and prediction markets) as a trading instrument and the volatility that prices them, published in collaboration with Block Scholes.
In the last 18 months, Prediction markets (PMs) grew from roughly $2 billion in monthly volume to more than $30 billion, scaling rapidly from a niche category to a mature ecosystem.
Prediction Markets Have Never Been This Strong — research from Castle Labs.
Predicting the future everyday.
Prediction Markets is the Alpha.
A Castle Research Report: Diving into Polymarket and Azuro
The Castle Chronicle: Volume 76
