·OptionsDeep Dives
Prediction markets as option-like instruments
Prediction markets work like binary options, down to 300-second expiries. How Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid binaries compare as option-like instruments.
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Prediction Markets & Volatility
Prediction markets and options both turn uncertainty into a tradable object. Castle Labs tracks Polymarket, Kalshi, Azuro, onchain options protocols, binary markets, volatility venues, and the products forming around probabilistic pricing. This topic is deliberately narrower than Markets or Trading: it is for readers who care about how crypto markets price information, risk, and future events.
$383.7M
prediction market TVL
$75.2M
onchain options volume (30d)
$344.2M
Polymarket International TVL
Sources: DeFiLlama prediction markets (2026-11-01), DeFiLlama options volume (2026-11-01).
Latest Predictions Research
Showing 1-7 of 7 articles
·OptionsDeep Dives
The Rebirth of Onchain Options: An Ecosystem View
Options traded over 4x the contracts of futures in 2024. How onchain options moved past DOVs to order books, AMMs, perpetual options and short-dated binaries.
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·MarketsPredictions
Prediction Markets: From Curated Platforms to Open Protocols
Prediction markets grew from about $2 billion to over $30 billion in monthly volume. Why curated Polymarket and Kalshi won, and the open protocols now testing them.
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·MarketsPredictions
Prediction Markets Have Never Been This Strong
Prediction markets in 2025: weekly volume hit $3.8B, Polymarket got $2B from ICE, Kalshi leans on sports betting, and what TGEs, oracles and AI mean for 2026.
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·MarketsPredictions
Prediction Markets: The Race to Predict Everything
How prediction markets work and how Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless and Myriad compare on design and liquidity, with Polymarket at ~$22B cumulative volume.
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·MarketsPredictions
Prediction Markets: A Differentiated Hedging Tool
Why prediction markets like Polymarket, with nearly $1 billion in monthly volume, can hedge real-world event risk, and what the 97 sector projects need to grow.
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·MarketsPredictions
The Evolution of Prediction Markets
How prediction markets work, from Augur's failure to Polymarket and Azuro. Polymarket held $87.5M of the sector's $162M TVL in August 2024, driven by election bets.
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