Which onchain options platform is the largest?

Derive. Over the 30 days to late June 2026 it did $1.142 billion of notional and $44.3 million of premium, 79.2% of onchain options notional and 87.2% of premium, though market-maker rewards and token incentives support that volume. Rysk was second with $136.3 million, then Aevo with $45.1 million.

Why did onchain options struggle for so long?

Options split liquidity across many strikes and expiries, while perps concentrate it in one book. Early designs pushed hard-to-hedge risk onto passive LP pools, market makers struggled to update hundreds of quotes onchain, and products were too complex for retail but not professional enough for institutions. Vault yields also compressed until premiums no longer paid for the risk.

What changed for onchain options in 2026?

Yield. With stablecoin and basis yields compressed, selling volatility through covered calls and cash-secured puts became competitive, and builders call volatility "the last product left that is unfarmed." Order books and RFQs replaced options AMMs, cheaper chains cut costs, and products such as Rysk reframed options as income on assets users already hold.

Are prediction markets the same as binary options?

For financial outcomes, yes. A BTC up/down or "above X" contract pays $1 or $0 at expiry, identical to a binary option, and its fair price is set by the vanilla options market. In June 2026, Polymarket's BTC ladder and the Block Scholes options surface disagreed by up to about 6 points at some strikes, in both directions.

How big are prediction markets?

About $30 billion a month in mid-2026, up from about $2 billion 18 months earlier, with fees over $300 million in June 2026, roughly double the fees of lending. Kalshi holds over 65% of volume, Polymarket does over $10 billion a month, and Hyperliquid's HIP-4 passed $150 million in its first weeks.

What was BTC options skew telling us in 2026?

That traders paid up for protection. BTC's 25-delta skew was negative for most of 2026 and never stayed above zero, dropping to -30% in the February sell-off. In June the 7-day put wing traded 10-25% above at-the-money volatility while calls traded 5-13% below, so the smile steepened mainly from demand for downside puts.

What happened to BTC volatility in June 2026?

On 5 June 2026 BTC fell below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, 7-day realised volatility jumped from 30% to 70%, and 7-day implied volatility spiked to 65%, inverting the term structure. Within a week short-dated implied volatility fell back toward 30%, a multi-year low, showing how volatile volatility itself was.

Research/Flagship Reports

Published July 202695 pagesTom Berry · Ankush Jha · Block Scholes

The Renaissance of Onchain Options

Mapping the expansion of options as a trading instrument and the volatility that prices them

Data snapshot: July 2026. Figures are preserved from the published report; charts marked updated daily use live data.

Get the Full Report →

“Options and prediction markets should not be treated so separately, as they are effectively different interfaces for the same underlying demand: priced conditional outcomes.”

The Renaissance of Onchain Options cover

▮ The numbers that matter

4x+

Options contracts relative to futures in 2024

15.2B

U.S.-listed options contracts traded in 2025

$36B

Approximate U.S. options premium traded daily

$1T+

Peak daily notional in same-day SPX options

59%

0DTE share of SPX options volume in 2025

$27.6B

IBIT options open interest cited in the report

Executive Summary

A new group of order-book, AMM, perpetual-option and binary-market venues is rebuilding onchain options after the DOV cycle. Co-authored with Block Scholes, the report maps those products, compares one-day BTC binary markets and uses BTC and ETH volatility surfaces to examine how options and prediction markets price conditional outcomes.

Key findings

01Exchange-traded options volume exceeded futures by more than four times in 2024, while U.S.-listed options reached about 15.2 billion contracts in 2025.
02Onchain product design has expanded beyond DOVs into order books, AMMs, perpetual options, short-dated binaries and prediction markets.
03Across the 22 to 28 June 2026 BTC binary sample, Kalshi averaged $4.24 million in daily volume, Polymarket $2.76 million and Hyperliquid about $400,000.

Covered in the report

DeriveRyskAevoParadexPanopticGammaSwapHyperliquidPolymarketKalshiBlock Scholes

Inside

01Executive Summary
02Options in Financial Markets
03The Crypto Options Ecosystem
04Vanilla, Exotic and Short-Dated Options
05Prediction Markets as Option-Like Instruments
06Comparing Binary Options Providers
07The State of BTC and ETH Volatility
08Where Onchain Volatility Markets Are Going

Read the full report, free →

The Main Onchain Options Platforms in 2026

Onchain options did $1.44 billion of notional over 30 days in mid-2026, and premium volume hit all-time highs. Early designs failed on thin liquidity and passive LP pools (Opyn, Hegic, Ribbon, Lyra, Premia); today's venues use order books or RFQs with professional market makers, or package options as simple income products.

Castle Labs — Now, week of 19 Oct 2026Rysk TVL, last week: $46.35M · Stablecoin share: 45.7%
In the report, July 2026Rysk is built on collateralised option selling, so TVL matters: sellers lock full collateral to earn premium. On Derive, by contrast, buyers can pay small premiums for large payouts.
Report page 23

Date	Stablecoins	HYPE ecosystem	BTC	ETH	SOL	XRP	Other long-tail
3 Aug 2026	$12.2M	$9.58M	$4.16M	$3.12M	$67.15K	$0	$93.2K
10 Aug 2026	$14.51M	$14.2M	$4.38M	$3.33M	$69.21K	$0	$115K
17 Aug 2026	$16.3M	$24.17M	$6.14M	$5.28M	$131K	$0	$124K
24 Aug 2026	$20.58M	$24.4M	$8.35M	$6.31M	$226K	$0	$77.87K
31 Aug 2026	$23.29M	$19.83M	$5.54M	$3.57M	$172K	$0	$21.04K
7 Sep 2026	$23.61M	$18.07M	$5.66M	$3.27M	$304K	$0	$20.61K
14 Sep 2026	$24.65M	$18.9M	$6.23M	$3.74M	$331K	$0	$20.36K
21 Sep 2026	$27.88M	$19.85M	$6.24M	$3.96M	$313K	$0	$33.7K
28 Sep 2026	$28.08M	$10.84M	$3.38M	$3.54M	$66.22K	$0	$108K
5 Oct 2026	$24.12M	$12.27M	$3.59M	$4.21M	$114K	$0	$110K
12 Oct 2026	$22.6M	$13.08M	$3.5M	$5.05M	$119K	$0	$108K
19 Oct 2026	$21.2M	$14.81M	$4.44M	$5.52M	$156K	$0	$214K

Onchain options venues, last 30 days to late June 2026

Venue	Model	30-day notional	30-day premium	Who it serves
Derive (ex-Lyra)	Order book on its own OP Stack L2; options and perps cross-margined	$1.142B (79.2% of notional)	$44.3M (87.2% of premium)	Professional traders and market makers; volume supported by incentives
Rysk	RFQ; covered calls and cash-secured puts as income	$136.3M (9.5%)	$1.94M	Holders, treasuries and DAOs; Hyperion, a Nasdaq-listed HYPE treasury, runs strategies on it
Aevo (ex-Ribbon)	Order book on a custom L2; options beside perps and pre-launch markets	$45.1M (3.1%)	$2.52M	Active traders; live options OI only about $3.6M
Others	Paradex, Kyan, CallPut, Hypersurface, Ithaca, SOFA	Small and fragmented	Rising share of premium in 2026	Varied, including stock options (CallPut)

Source: Block Scholes data in Castle Labs, The Renaissance of Onchain Options (July 2026)

Rysk's monthly notional grew from $50 million in January to $182 million in May 2026, driven by HYPE holders earning yield on assets they already hold.

Are Prediction Markets Binary Options?

Yes, for price markets. A Polymarket "BTC Up or Down" contract pays $1 if a condition holds at expiry and $0 otherwise, exactly like a binary (digital) option. A binary can be built from two call options struck close together and scaled to pay $1, so by no-arbitrage its fair price is fixed by the vanilla options market: it equals the slope of the call-price curve at that strike.

That makes the options surface a benchmark for prediction-market odds. Comparing Polymarket's "Bitcoin above X on June 28" ladder with Block Scholes' composite surface, the two disagreed by strike: Polymarket was more bullish at some strikes and less at others.

	Probability
Options surface, terminal	4.1%
Options surface, one-touch	9.6%
Polymarket, one-touch	10.5%

Implied probability BTC closes above each strike, 28 June 2026 (about 2.2 days to expiry)

Strike	Polymarket	Options surface (Block Scholes)
$54,000	98.2%	96.1%
$56,000	93.0%	91.8%
$58,000	73.9%	80.1%
$60,000	41.2%	42.5%
$62,000	10.5%	9.0%
$64,000	2.4%	1.6%

Source: Polymarket and the Block Scholes composite volatility surface, aligned to 12:00 ET on 28 June 2026

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Hyperliquid for BTC Binaries

Prediction markets grew from about $2 billion a month to about $30 billion a month in 18 months, with fees over $300 million in June 2026. Kalshi holds over 65% of volume. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets went live in May 2026 and passed $150 million of volume; deployers stake 1 million HYPE.

Date	Polymarket	Kalshi
3 Aug 2026	$1.77M	$3.29M
10 Aug 2026	$1.3M	$2.97M
17 Aug 2026	$1.72M	$4.55M
24 Aug 2026	$1.61M	$3.65M
31 Aug 2026	$1.76M	$3.62M
7 Sep 2026	$1.58M	$2.94M
14 Sep 2026	$1.71M	$4.14M
21 Sep 2026	$1.51M	$3.53M
28 Sep 2026	$1.55M	$3.41M
5 Oct 2026	$1.29M	$2.9M
12 Oct 2026	$1.17M	$3.43M
19 Oct 2026	$1.21M	$3.03M

BTC one-day binary markets, 22 to 28 June 2026

Venue	Average daily volume	Week's volume	Quoted spread	Product age
Kalshi	$4.24M	$29.6M	107-154 bps	About 24 months
Polymarket	$2.76M	$19.3M	5.8-19.8 bps (from trades, may look tighter)	About 36 months
Hyperliquid HIP-4	About $400K	$2.8M	50-587 bps	Launched May 2026

Source: Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs; Hyperliquid via 0xArchive

More Charts From the Report

11 charts from the 95-page PDF on this page, each with the number that matters.

BTC options volume: Deribit vs IBIT vs CME. Institutional demand for crypto options has grown steadily, first through Deribit and more recently through BlackRock's IBIT options and CME. — BTC options volume: Deribit vs IBIT vs CME
Institutional demand for crypto options has grown steadily, first through Deribit and more recently through BlackRock's IBIT options and CME.
Report page 14

The crypto options ecosystem by settlement and payoff. Offchain vanilla options, led by Deribit, IBIT, CME, Binance and OKX, are still the clear leader. Onchain vanilla venues are rebuilding around order books, RFQs and simpler products that settle onchain. — The crypto options ecosystem by settlement and payoff
Offchain vanilla options, led by Deribit, IBIT, CME, Binance and OKX, are still the clear leader. Onchain vanilla venues are rebuilding around order books, RFQs and simpler products that settle onchain.
Report page 17

Date	Kyan	CallPut	Hypersurface	Ithaca	SOFA	Paradex Options
Jan 2026	$0	$0.020	$73.24K	$2.32M	$1.24M	$0
Feb 2026	$0	$8.75K	$130K	$2.03M	$373K	$0
Mar 2026	$0	$8.6K	$330K	$1.22M	$477K	$5.34K
Apr 2026	$4.5K	$10.68K	$188K	$326K	$543K	$121K
May 2026	$255K	$13.25K	$269K	$640K	$628K	$375K
Jun 2026	$11.04K	$381K	$353K	$416K	$415K	$338K
Jul 2026	$0	$429K	$237K	$539K	$264K	$334K
Aug 2026	$0	$392K	$214K	$208K	$257K	$994K
Sep 2026	$0	$282K	$64.55K	$0	$242K	$3.01M
Oct 2026	$0	$387K	$23.61K	$2K	$224K	$2.68M

Monthly prediction market notional volume. Prediction markets grew from about $2 billion a month to about $30 billion a month in 18 months, most of it after the 2024 US election, when Polymarket's odds proved more accurate. — Monthly prediction market notional volume
Prediction markets grew from about $2 billion a month to about $30 billion a month in 18 months, most of it after the 2024 US election, when Polymarket's odds proved more accurate.
Report page 41

Polymarket and Polymarket US notional volume. Polymarket now does over $10 billion a month, driven by crypto, sports and politics. It bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, in 2025 to return to the US market. — Polymarket and Polymarket US notional volume
Polymarket now does over $10 billion a month, driven by crypto, sports and politics. It bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, in 2025 to return to the US market.
Report page 42

BTC one-day binary market spreads. Hyperliquid had the widest and most volatile spreads (50 to 587 bps), Kalshi a steady 107 to 154 bps. Polymarket's 5.8 to 19.8 bps is reconstructed from trades and likely understates its true spread. — BTC one-day binary market spreads
Hyperliquid had the widest and most volatile spreads (50 to 587 bps), Kalshi a steady 107 to 154 bps. Polymarket's 5.8 to 19.8 bps is reconstructed from trades and likely understates its true spread.
Report page 52

Date	BTC spot	90th pctl	75th pctl	Implied median	25th pctl	10th pctl
25 Oct 2026	$80.57K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
26 Oct 2026	$79.95K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
27 Oct 2026	$79.64K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
28 Oct 2026	$80.87K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
29 Oct 2026	$79.78K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
30 Oct 2026	$78.12K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
31 Oct 2026	$77.22K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
1 Nov 2026	$77.87K	$77.87K	$77.87K	$77.87K	$77.87K	$77.87K
13 Nov 2026	n/a	$84.6K	$81.56K	$78.29K	$74.81K	$71.15K
20 Nov 2026	n/a	$86.27K	$82.45K	$78.38K	$74.1K	$69.64K
27 Nov 2026	n/a	$87.89K	$83.18K	$78.31K	$73.38K	$68.51K
25 Dec 2026	n/a	$93.66K	$86.16K	$78.47K	$70.86K	$63.6K

Get every chart in the full report →

Method and Data Boundary

Castle and Block Scholes map onchain options venues and analyse BTC and ETH volatility surfaces. The binary-market comparison covers 22 to 28 June 2026 using Hyperliquid data from 0xArchive and public Polymarket and Kalshi APIs, with volume and spread calculated separately for each venue.

Published: July 2026
Data snapshot: July 2026

Primary Evidence

Live data · updated daily

Bitcoin $100K Odds

→

Data From the Report

What BTC options priced for year-end 2026

Probabilities derived from the Block Scholes options surface for the 25 December 2026 expiry, compared with Polymarket, late June 2026.

Outcome	Probability
BTC above $100K at year-end (options)	3.9%
BTC touches $100K at any point before year-end (options)	10.5%
BTC touches $100K before 2027 (Polymarket)	14.5%
BTC above $87K at year-end (options)	10%
BTC below $75K at year-end (options)	75%

Source: Block Scholes composite volatility surface; Polymarket

Options in traditional markets, for scale

Data point	Value
Options vs futures contracts traded globally, 2024	Over 4x
US-listed options contracts, 2025 (sixth record year)	About 15.2B, ~$36B premium a day
SPX zero-day options, 2025	59% of the product's volume, 2.3M contracts a day
BlackRock IBIT options open interest, April 2026	$27.6B, above Deribit BTC options

Source: Cboe; Castle Labs and Block Scholes

Questions This Report Answers

Which onchain options platform is the largest?: Derive. Over the 30 days to late June 2026 it did $1.142 billion of notional and $44.3 million of premium, 79.2% of onchain options notional and 87.2% of premium, though market-maker rewards and token incentives support that volume. Rysk was second with $136.3 million, then Aevo with $45.1 million.
Why did onchain options struggle for so long?: Options split liquidity across many strikes and expiries, while perps concentrate it in one book. Early designs pushed hard-to-hedge risk onto passive LP pools, market makers struggled to update hundreds of quotes onchain, and products were too complex for retail but not professional enough for institutions. Vault yields also compressed until premiums no longer paid for the risk.
What changed for onchain options in 2026?: Yield. With stablecoin and basis yields compressed, selling volatility through covered calls and cash-secured puts became competitive, and builders call volatility "the last product left that is unfarmed." Order books and RFQs replaced options AMMs, cheaper chains cut costs, and products such as Rysk reframed options as income on assets users already hold.
Are prediction markets the same as binary options?: For financial outcomes, yes. A BTC up/down or "above X" contract pays $1 or $0 at expiry, identical to a binary option, and its fair price is set by the vanilla options market. In June 2026, Polymarket's BTC ladder and the Block Scholes options surface disagreed by up to about 6 points at some strikes, in both directions.
How big are prediction markets?: About $30 billion a month in mid-2026, up from about $2 billion 18 months earlier, with fees over $300 million in June 2026, roughly double the fees of lending. Kalshi holds over 65% of volume, Polymarket does over $10 billion a month, and Hyperliquid's HIP-4 passed $150 million in its first weeks.
What was BTC options skew telling us in 2026?: That traders paid up for protection. BTC's 25-delta skew was negative for most of 2026 and never stayed above zero, dropping to -30% in the February sell-off. In June the 7-day put wing traded 10-25% above at-the-money volatility while calls traded 5-13% below, so the smile steepened mainly from demand for downside puts.
What happened to BTC volatility in June 2026?: On 5 June 2026 BTC fell below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, 7-day realised volatility jumped from 30% to 70%, and 7-day implied volatility spiked to 65%, inverting the term structure. Within a week short-dated implied volatility fell back toward 30%, a multi-year low, showing how volatile volatility itself was.

More on this topic: Perp DEX & Onchain Trading Research

More Flagship Research

March 2026

The Renaissance of Onchain Options

▮ The numbers that matter

Executive Summary

Key findings

Covered in the report

Inside

The Main Onchain Options Platforms in 2026

Onchain options venues, last 30 days to late June 2026

Are Prediction Markets Binary Options?

Implied probability BTC closes above each strike, 28 June 2026 (about 2.2 days to expiry)

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Hyperliquid for BTC Binaries

BTC one-day binary markets, 22 to 28 June 2026

More Charts From the Report

BTC options volume: Deribit vs IBIT vs CME

The crypto options ecosystem by settlement and payoff

Monthly prediction market notional volume

Polymarket and Polymarket US notional volume

BTC one-day binary market spreads

Method and Data Boundary

Primary Evidence

Data From the Report

What BTC options priced for year-end 2026

Options in traditional markets, for scale

Questions This Report Answers

More Flagship Research

The Evolution of Commodities

The Vaultification of Finance

The Full-Stack Privacy Ecosystem

The Renaissance of Onchain Options

▮ The numbers that matter

Executive Summary

Key findings

Covered in the report

Inside

The Main Onchain Options Platforms in 2026

Onchain options venues, last 30 days to late June 2026

Are Prediction Markets Binary Options?

Implied probability BTC closes above each strike, 28 June 2026 (about 2.2 days to expiry)

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Hyperliquid for BTC Binaries

BTC one-day binary markets, 22 to 28 June 2026

More Charts From the Report

BTC options volume: Deribit vs IBIT vs CME

The crypto options ecosystem by settlement and payoff

Monthly prediction market notional volume

Polymarket and Polymarket US notional volume

Monthly prediction market volume share

BTC one-day binary market spreads

Method and Data Boundary

Primary Evidence

Data From the Report

What BTC options priced for year-end 2026

Options in traditional markets, for scale

Questions This Report Answers

More Flagship Research

The Evolution of Commodities

The Vaultification of Finance

The Full-Stack Privacy Ecosystem