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Research/Flagship Reports
Published March 202671 pagesFrancesco · Noveleader

The Evolution of Commodities

State of Commodities and a Quantitative Analysis of the Growth of these Markets Onchain

Data snapshot: March 2026. Figures are preserved from the published report; charts marked updated daily use live data.

“If onchain commodity trading follows the Globex pattern, we are in approximately 1995.”

▮ The numbers that matter

$7.4B
Tokenised spot commodities, 4x in one year
$1.4B+
Commodity perp OI on Hyperliquid
$143T
Annual notional moved by global commodity markets
$45B+
Ostium cumulative volume, >95% non-crypto OI
+227%
Tokenised gold volume YoY ($178B in 2025)
30x
Weekend oil-perp volume growth in three weeks

Executive Summary

Tokenised spot commodities grew from $1.9 billion to more than $7 billion in one year, while commodity perpetual open interest on Hyperliquid passed $1.4 billion. The report compares the CME crude-oil contract with Hyperliquid's xyz:CL market to measure how 24/7 onchain venues handle price discovery, liquidity and execution outside traditional market hours.

Key findings

  1. 01Tokenised spot commodities reached $7.4 billion, with tokenised gold responsible for most of the category.
  2. 02Commodity perpetual open interest on Hyperliquid exceeded $1.4 billion as HIP-3 expanded access to metals, energy and equity indices.
  3. 03CME revealed liquidity was 109 times deeper within 5 basis points, while xyz:CL weekend volume rose from $31 million to more than $1 billion across the three-week study.

Covered in the report

HyperliquidTrade XYZOstiumCME GroupTether GoldPaxos GoldAsterBinanceJPMorgan Kinexys

Inside

  1. 01The Trillion Dollar Friction Machine
  2. 02State of Onchain Commodities
  3. 03Onchain Trading Pits: Hyperliquid & Ostium
  4. 04The CME: Status Quo Under Stress
  5. 05Comparative Analysis: xyz:CL vs CLJ6
  6. 06Quantitative Analysis: Overlapping Hours & Weekends

What Are Tokenised Commodities?

Tokenised commodities are tokens backed by, or tracking, a physical commodity such as gold, oil, soybeans or electricity. Spot tokens represent ownership of the underlying; commodity perps give leveraged exposure without expiry. Both trade around the clock and settle onchain.

In March 2026 spot tokenised commodities were worth $7.4 billion, over 27% of the $27.35 billion of tokenised real-world assets, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier. Gold is most of it: over $5.9 billion, more than 75% of the onchain spot commodity market.

Top five tokenised spot commodities. Paxos Gold and Tether Gold make up most of the market. Both trade around the clock, settle instantly and move across chains, which traditional gold markets cannot do.

Top five tokenised spot commodities

Paxos Gold and Tether Gold make up most of the market. Both trade around the clock, settle instantly and move across chains, which traditional gold markets cannot do.

Report page 17

The largest tokenised spot commodities, March 2026

CommodityMain tokensValue onchain
GoldTether Gold (XAUT), Paxos Gold (PAXG)Over $5.9B
ElectricityJWMH on RippleOver $800M
Soybean oilJSOY_OIL (JusToken, Polygon)Over $380M
SoybeansJSOY (JusToken, Polygon)Over $300M
DiamondsTokenised diamonds on RippleOver $100M
Cotton and cornJCOT, JCORN (JusToken)$19M and $16M

Source: Castle Labs, The Evolution of Commodities (March 2026), from RWA.xyz data

Tokenised gold traded over $178 billion in 2025, up 227% year on year and second only to the GLD ETF globally.

Can You Trade Oil on Weekends? Hyperliquid vs CME

CME commodity markets run about 6,400 hours a year, roughly 73% of calendar hours, and close at weekends. Onchain venues run all 8,760 hours. When the US and Israel struck Iran on Saturday 28 February 2026, CME oil contracts stayed frozen until Sunday evening, while Hyperliquid's oil perp on TradeXYZ (xyz:CL) kept trading.

We tracked xyz:CL against CME's April WTI contract (CLJ6) across the next three weekends. Hyperliquid's price is held inside discovery bounds when the CME reference is closed, which capped price discovery in the first two weekends.

Hyperliquid (xyz:CL) and CME (CLJ6) oil prices. During CME hours the two prices track closely, though a discount opened and widened as oil rose, most likely from funding pressure on crowded longs. At weekends the price band limits how far Hyperliquid can move.

Hyperliquid (xyz:CL) and CME (CLJ6) oil prices

During CME hours the two prices track closely, though a discount opened and widened as oil rose, most likely from funding pressure on crowded longs. At weekends the price band limits how far Hyperliquid can move.

Report page 59

Three weekends of onchain oil trading, February to March 2026

WeekendCME Friday close to Monday openHyperliquid xyz:CLxyz:CL volumexyz:CL trades
28 Feb to 1 Mar (Iran strikes)$67.29 to $75 (+1,146 bps)Reached about $70.80, roughly 45% of the gap, capped by discovery bounds$31.3M26,140
7 to 8 Mar$91.27 to $98 (+737 bps)Reached about $95.83, 68% of the move$611.6M529,232
14 to 15 Mar$99.31 to $100.93 (+163 bps)Traded at $101.56 at the CME open, a slight overshoot$1,072.1M706,634

Source: CME CLJ6 trades via Databento; Hyperliquid xyz:CL fills from Hyperliquid's public S3 archive and API

Weekend volume grew from $31 million to over $1 billion in three weeks, and the average weekend trade grew from $1,199 to over $1,500, a sign of hedging flow joining retail speculation.

Hyperliquid vs Ostium for Commodity Trading

The two largest onchain commodity venues make opposite design choices. Hyperliquid builds native order books and keeps markets open 24/7; Ostium quotes from the traditional markets' own prices and pauses market orders when those markets close.

HIP-3 Volume as a % of Total Volume

Daily share of Hyperliquid perp volume, since the HIP-3 launch in October 2025

  • HIP-3 volume
  • Crypto volume
0%50%100%Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26May '26Jul '26Sep '26Report data, 16 Mar 2026

Source: Hyperliquid API · Data to 31 Oct 2026 · Updated daily

Castle Labs
View the data
DateHIP-3 volumeCrypto volume
20 Oct 202639.8%60.2%
21 Oct 202642.3%57.7%
22 Oct 202636.1%63.9%
23 Oct 202641.6%58.4%
24 Oct 20269.6%90.4%
25 Oct 202621%79%
26 Oct 202639.4%60.6%
27 Oct 202643.1%56.9%
28 Oct 202649.5%50.5%
29 Oct 202627.6%72.4%
30 Oct 202629.4%70.6%
31 Oct 202614.1%85.9%

Now, 31 Oct 2026HIP-3 share, last 7 days: 33.3% · HIP-3 volume since launch: $700B

In the report, March 2026HIP-3 markets have processed over $109 billion and now make up about 25% of Hyperliquid's volume. Commodity trading alone is over 16%.

Report page 27

How the two venues differ

Hyperliquid (HIP-3, mostly TradeXYZ)Ostium
PricingOnchain order book; Pyth reference with discovery bounds off-hoursDirect oracle pricing from Chainlink Data Streams and Stork
Weekend tradingYes, 24/7Market orders pause when the underlying closes; limit and stop orders queue
Maximum margin multipleUp to 25x on commoditiesUp to 100x in some markets
ScaleHIP-3 processed over $109B; commodities are over 16% of platform volumeOver $45B cumulative volume; commodities over $125M of about $200M OI

Source: Castle Labs, The Evolution of Commodities (March 2026)

More Charts From the Report

11 charts from the 71-page PDF on this page, each with the number that matters.

Commodity market size by product. The global commodity market moves about $143 trillion in notional value. Oil is the largest single market at about $3.5 trillion, ahead of gold at $1.5 trillion and natural gas at $1.2 trillion.

Commodity market size by product

The global commodity market moves about $143 trillion in notional value. Oil is the largest single market at about $3.5 trillion, ahead of gold at $1.5 trillion and natural gas at $1.2 trillion.

Report page 8

Relative performance of commodities, 1975 to 2025. Indexed to 1975 prices, most commodities have rallied since their pandemic lows in March 2020.

Relative performance of commodities, 1975 to 2025

Indexed to 1975 prices, most commodities have rallied since their pandemic lows in March 2020.

Report page 8

HIP-3 Volume Distribution

Daily HIP-3 perp volume by deployer, since the October 2025 launch

  • tradeXYZ
  • Felix
  • Kinetiq
  • hyENA
  • Ventuals
  • Dreamcash
  • Other deployers
$0$5B$10BNov '25Jan '26Mar '26May '26Jul '26Sep '26Report data, 16 Mar 2026

Source: Hyperliquid API · Data to 31 Oct 2026 · Updated daily

Castle Labs
View the data
DatetradeXYZFelixKinetiqhyENAVentualsDreamcashOther deployers
20 Oct 2026$3.64B$0$3.9M$0$0$0$110M
21 Oct 2026$3.63B$0$3.67M$0$0$0$106M
22 Oct 2026$3.76B$0$1.76M$0$0$0$65.85M
23 Oct 2026$3.01B$0$2.9M$0$0$0$60.42M
24 Oct 2026$480M$0$1.32M$0$0$0$28.7M
25 Oct 2026$770M$0$1.17M$0$0$0$30.05M
26 Oct 2026$3.15B$0$2.65M$0$0$0$63.64M
27 Oct 2026$2.8B$0$1.37M$0$0$0$43.32M
28 Oct 2026$4.24B$0$2.5M$0$0$0$59.5M
29 Oct 2026$4.79B$0$1.25M$0$0$0$61.81M
30 Oct 2026$4.06B$0$213K$0$0$0$73.91M
31 Oct 2026$345M$0$114K$0$0$0$35.27M

Now, 31 Oct 2026HIP-3 volume, last 30 days: $74.97B · tradeXYZ share, last 30 days: 97.4%

In the report, March 2026TradeXYZ runs over 85% of HIP-3 volume. In February, Hyperliquid did over $4.09 billion of silver volume in 24 hours, more than many traditional venues trade in a month.

Report page 28

Ostium daily commodities volume. Over 95% of Ostium's open interest is in non-crypto assets. Cumulative volume passed $45 billion, metals drove over $7 billion of it, and gold is the most traded market.

Ostium daily commodities volume

Over 95% of Ostium's open interest is in non-crypto assets. Cumulative volume passed $45 billion, metals drove over $7 billion of it, and gold is the most traded market.

Report page 32

Liquidity depth: Hyperliquid oil (xyz:CL) vs CME (CLJ6). Within 2 bps of mid, CME offers $19 million of executable depth against $152K on Hyperliquid, a 125x gap. Onchain depth is under 1% of CME's.

Liquidity depth: Hyperliquid oil (xyz:CL) vs CME (CLJ6)

Within 2 bps of mid, CME offers $19 million of executable depth against $152K on Hyperliquid, a 125x gap. Onchain depth is under 1% of CME's.

Report page 54

Slippage by order size during CME trading hours. A $100K order slips 4.33 bps on Hyperliquid and nothing on CME. At $1 million it is 15.4 bps against 0.79 bps, about 20x, so the venue is not yet built for institutional size.

Slippage by order size during CME trading hours

A $100K order slips 4.33 bps on Hyperliquid and nothing on CME. At $1 million it is 15.4 bps against 0.79 bps, about 20x, so the venue is not yet built for institutional size.

Report page 56

Weekend slippage on Hyperliquid oil, three weekends. Across three weekends, simulated slippage fell 16% for $10K orders, 75% for $100K orders and 86.9% for $1 million orders as the market matured.

Weekend slippage on Hyperliquid oil, three weekends

Across three weekends, simulated slippage fell 16% for $10K orders, 75% for $100K orders and 86.9% for $1 million orders as the market matured.

Report page 57

Weekend oil volume on Hyperliquid. Weekend volume on xyz:CL grew from $31.3 million to $1,072.1 million in three weekends, and the number of trades rose from 26,140 to 706,634.

Weekend oil volume on Hyperliquid

Weekend volume on xyz:CL grew from $31.3 million to $1,072.1 million in three weekends, and the number of trades rose from 26,140 to 706,634.

Report page 64

Get every chart in the full report →

Method and Data Boundary

Castle mapped tokenised spot and perpetual markets, then compared CME CLJ6 trades from Databento with Hyperliquid xyz:CL fills from 27 February to 16 March 2026. Depth and slippage use executed fills rather than resting order-book quotes.

Published
March 2026
Data snapshot
March 2026

Data From the Report

Onchain oil vs CME oil during overlapping hours

Hyperliquid xyz:CL vs CME CLJ6, 27 February to 16 March 2026. Depth is revealed liquidity (volume executed within the band per 5-minute window), and slippage is simulated from executed fills.

MetricHyperliquid xyz:CLCME CLJ6
Executed depth within 2 bps$152K$19M (125x)
Median trade size$543$90,450
Slippage on a $10K order0.77 bps0 bps
Slippage on a $100K order4.33 bps0 bps
Slippage on a $1M order15.4 bps0.79 bps

Source: CME CLJ6 trades via Databento; Hyperliquid xyz:CL fills from Hyperliquid's public S3 archive

CME commodity volume, February 2026

CME Group posted its best month on record in February 2026.

SegmentAverage daily contractsChange year on year
All products37.6M (record)+14%
Energy3.2M+12%
Crude oil1.1MOver +35%
Metals1.5MOver +88%
Agriculture2.3M+11%

Source: CME Group monthly volume, February 2026

Questions This Report Answers

How big is the tokenised commodities market?
Spot tokenised commodities were worth $7.4 billion in March 2026, over 27% of the $27.35 billion tokenised real-world asset market, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier. Gold accounts for over $5.9 billion of it. On top of spot tokens, commodity perps on Hyperliquid carried over $1.4 billion of open interest.
What is the largest tokenised commodity?
Gold, through Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG), with over $5.9 billion onchain and more than 75% of the spot commodity market. Tokenised gold traded over $178 billion in 2025, up 227% year on year, second only to the GLD ETF globally.
Can you trade oil on weekends?
Yes, onchain. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 oil perps, mostly through TradeXYZ, trade 24/7 while CME is shut from Friday evening to Sunday evening. On the weekend of 7 to 10 March 2026, after the Iran strikes, just under $3 billion of commodities traded on Hyperliquid, and oil perps became its largest HIP-3 market.
How does Hyperliquid price commodities when CME is closed?
TradeXYZ sends three prices per update: a Pyth oracle reference, a mark price limited to a 1% move per update, and an external safety price that falls back to an average of recent mark prices when Pyth stops updating. Discovery bounds cap how far the price can move from the last external reference, funding rates push it back toward the index, and the price snaps back when Pyth resumes on Monday.
Is onchain oil as liquid as CME?
Not yet. In our March 2026 study, CME offered $19 million of executed depth within 2 bps against $152,000 on Hyperliquid, and a $1 million order slipped 15.4 bps on Hyperliquid against 0.79 bps on CME. For small orders the gap barely matters: a $10,000 order slipped 0.77 bps on Hyperliquid, and the median Hyperliquid oil trade was $543.
How much commodity volume does Hyperliquid handle?
HIP-3 markets had processed over $109 billion by March 2026, about 25% of Hyperliquid's volume, with commodities over 16% of the platform total. On 5 February 2026 silver perps alone did $4.09 billion in 24 hours. TradeXYZ handles over 85% of HIP-3 volume.
Will onchain venues replace the CME?
Our view is no. Electronic trading took CME from pits to Globex over 29 years and made it bigger, not smaller. The likely outcome is that CME adopts 24/7 trading and onchain settlement while onchain venues win the users CME cannot serve: small retail trades, non-US access and DeFi composability.